Representative Thomas Massie’s chances of winning against Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein in the Republican primary for Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District have plunged one day before the election.
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Early Monday, Massie, who had previously been the favorite on prediction markets, slipped down to a 43 percent chance of victory on both Kalshi and Poloymarket, down from 61 percent and 56 percent respectively on Saturday, as in-person early voting ended.
Newsweek has contacted Massie’s campaign outside regular working hours for comment via email.
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Few Republicans have aggravated President Donald Trump as much as Massie, who has been at odds with him over the Department of Justice’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files and foreign policy issues.
Trump has regularly derided Massie on social media and endorsed Gallrein, a farmer and former Navy SEAL. The president’s endorsements have long carried significant influence in Republican primaries, and this primary will be a test of his grip on the party even as his approval rating has slipped among some other voter groups.
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This is a developing story. More to follow.
