{"id":318,"date":"2026-05-17T09:42:25","date_gmt":"2026-05-17T09:42:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/usrelocationpost.com\/?p=318"},"modified":"2026-05-17T09:42:25","modified_gmt":"2026-05-17T09:42:25","slug":"thomas-massies-chances-of-defeating-trump-and-the-billionaires","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/usrelocationpost.com\/?p=318","title":{"rendered":"Thomas Massie\u2019s Chances of Defeating Trump and the Billionaires"},"content":{"rendered":"

Representative Thomas Massie is set to face off against Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein in the Republican primary for Kentucky\u2019s 4th Congressional District next week and polls show a close race for the solidly conservative seat.<\/p>

Read more Heavy Snow Warning\u2014up to 16 Inches To Hit Five States: \u2018Hazardous\u2019<\/a><\/p>

Massie is one of the most conservative members of Congress but has been at odds with President Donald Trump over foreign policy and the Department of Justice\u2019s handling of the Epstein files. The clash, amplified by the involvement of wealthy conservative donors, highlights a deeper struggle over the future direction of the Republican Party.<\/p>

Trump\u2019s endorsements have historically carried\u00a0significant influence\u00a0in Republican primaries, particularly among the party\u2019s conservative base.\u00a0But the upcoming May 19 primary will test the power of Trump\u2019s influence as his national approval rating wanes.<\/p>

Newsweek <\/em>reached out to the Massie and Gallrein campaigns for comment via email.<\/p>

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>
Getty Images<\/span><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div>

Thomas Massie vs. Ed Gallrein: What Polls and Prediction Markets Show<\/h2>

The GOP primary enters its final stretch this weekend as Massie and Gallrein work to turn out their base of supporters to the polls. The race is viewed as competitive, with recent surveys suggesting a tight contest.<\/p>

Todd Belt, director of the Political Management Program at George Washington University, told Newsweek <\/em>that Trump\u2019s endorsement has made Massie vulnerable.<\/p>

\u201cThis is becoming\u00a0the most expensive\u00a0House primary race this cycle, and with that kind of money, you can never be certain,\u201d he said. Trump is \u201cvery powerful\u201d and can \u201cuse his endorsement and fundraising capacity to purge the party of those he finds disloyal.\u201d<\/p>

Gallrein led the latest poll from Quantus Insights. It found that 53 percent of respondents planned to support him, compared to 45 percent who planned to vote for Massie. Only 2 percent were undecided. It surveyed 908 likely voters May 11-12 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.<\/p>

The pollster noted that Massie holds a \u201cdurable base\u201d but that Gallrein still holds a lead on both the initial ballot and when leaners are pushed.<\/p>

\u201cIn a nationalized Republican primary shaped by Trump\u2019s endorsement, outside spending, and Massie\u2019s independent brand, Gallrein enters the final stretch with the advantage,\u201d the pollster wrote.<\/p>

Shauna Reilly, a political scientist at Northern Kentucky University, told Newsweek <\/em>that there has been a \u201cshift\u201d toward Gallrein in the past few weeks amid polling showing his surge and an increased ad buy in the district.<\/p>

\u201cThis is the first significant challenge that Massie has faced either in a primary or general election,” she said. “I have no doubt of the connection between his opposition to President Trump’s agenda is part of that drive.\u201d<\/p>

The race could be seen as a referendum on Trump or a \u201ccautionary tale for folks who want to oppose his agenda or stand up to him,\u201d Reilly said.<\/p>

\u201cShould Massie lose, it will be clear that Trump still has a hold on the Republican Party even in the twilight of his presidency,\u201d she said.<\/p>

An earlier Quantus Insights gave Massie a lead but found a larger number of undecided voters. It found Massie with 47 percent support to Gallrein\u2019s 38 percent, while 14 percent said they were undecided. It surveyed 438 likely Republican primary voters April 6-7 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.<\/p>

Meanwhile, a Big Data Poll survey gave Massie a nearly 5-point lead. Massie received support from 52.4 percent of respondents, while 47.6 percent said they would vote for Gallrein. It surveyed 433 registered likely voters April 3-7, with a sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.<\/p>

The poll\u2019s director, Rich Baris, wrote in the memo that the district, which is based around Northern Kentucky and includes the suburbs of Cincinnati, is \u201cknown for its independent streak.\u201d<\/p>

Massie is favored in prediction markets. He has a 64 percent chance on Kalshi and a 65 percent chance on Polymarket of defeating Gallrein in the primary.<\/p>