As Americans prepare for Memorial Day on May 25, The Old Farmer’s Almanac offers a long-range outlook on what conditions may be like across the country. While the Almanac doesn’t provide day‑specific or state‑by‑state forecasts, it divides the U.S. into 18 regions and predicts temperature and precipitation trends for May.
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Using those official regional trends, it’s possible to translate the forecast into a state-by-state guide for what Memorial Day weekend will most likely bring.
Summerlike Warmth Dominates Most States
The biggest takeaway from the almanac’s spring 2026 forecast is the widespread warmth that should feel like the start of summer:
- Most of the U.S. is set to see above-average temperatures in May, with heat building especially across the South, Midwest and Southwest.
- Much of the country is also trending drier than normal, though key regions will likely see pockets of heavier rain.
State-by-State Breakdown (Based on Almanac Regions)
Northeast (New York, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont, Maine)
The almanac predicts warmer-than-average temperatures for these regions, around 3 degrees Fahrenheit above average, alongside below-normal rainfall.
Memorial Day outlook: Warm with possible isolated storms.
Atlantic Corridor (Delaware, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island)
This region also trends warmer than normal, with rainfall returning closer to average by May.
Memorial Day outlook: Warm with scattered thunderstorms possible.
Appalachians (Pennsylvania, Maryland, Virginia)
Temperatures may run slightly above normal, but rainfall could split sharply: drier in the north and wetter in the south
Memorial Day outlook: Mixed. Some areas are expected to be dry and pleasant, while others may be prone to showers.
Southeast (Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina)
The region may be warmer than average, with a shift from a dry April to a wetter May.
Memorial Day outlook: Hot, humid and increasingly stormy—classic early summer conditions.
Florida
Conditions trend warm overall, with rainfall returning to near normal in May.
Memorial Day outlook: Warm to hot temperatures, particularly in the north, and scattered thunderstorms.
Lower Lakes (Illinois, Michigan)
Temperatures may run above average, with drier conditions in the east and wetter conditions in the west.
Memorial Day outlook: Warm, with some passing storms.
Ohio Valley (Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, Ohio)
The almanac calls for above-average temperatures, with wetter conditions in the east and drier conditions in the west.
Memorial Day outlook: Warm, but with some storm potential.
Deep South (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee)
This region is expected to be warmer-than-normal overall with above‑normal rainfall in northern areas and drier conditions further south, alongside frequent thunderstorm periods.
Memorial Day outlook: Warm and humid with scattered thunderstorms, especially in the northern parts of the region.
Upper Midwest (Minnesota, Wisconsin)
This region is forecast to be warmer and wetter than normal in the west, and cooler and drier in the east, with increased precipitation overall.
Memorial Day outlook:Warm but unsettled, with a high chance of storms.
Heartland (Kansas, Missouri, Iowa)
The weather outlook is warm overall with mixed rainfall—drier in northern areas and wetter further south.
Memorial Day outlook: Warm with a mix of sunshine and scattered showers, especially toward the southern parts of the region.
Texas and Oklahoma
Texas and Oklahoma are likely to see warm temperatures, but slightly below average in northern areas, with above‑normal rainfall and periods of unsettled, stormy weather.
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Memorial Day outlook: Rain and cooler temperatures are expected, with an elevated risk of thunderstorms later in the week.
High Plains (Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska)
This region is forecast to get warmer‑than‑normal temperatures with uneven rainfall—drier in the east and wetter in the west.
Memorial Day outlook: Warm temperatures with a chance of thunderstorms.
Intermountain (Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, Idaho)
The conditions are likely to vary across this region—cooler and wetter in the north, warmer and drier in the south.
Memorial Day outlook: Changeable weather with a mix of cooler spells in the north, warmer in the south and isolated showers.
Desert Southwest (New Mexico)
This region may see average temperatures, with rainfall higher in the east and lower in the west.
Memorial Day outlook:Hot and mostly dry, with isolated storm chances in eastern areas.
Pacific Northwest
Temperatures are expected to be cooler in northern areas and slightly warmer in the South, with overall drier conditions than usual.
Memorial Day outlook:Mild temperatures with occasional light showers, especially in northern zones.
Pacific Southwest (California)
Coastal and Southern California experience above‑normal temperatures in May with below‑normal rainfall.
Memorial Day outlook:Warm, sunny and dry, with stable, beach‑friendly conditions.
Alaska
Southern Alaska trends milder with drier conditions, while northern areas see warmer temperatures and increased precipitation.
Memorial Day outlook: Mild overall, but sunny in the north with scattered showers in central and southern areas.
Hawaii
The islands see warmer‑than‑usual conditions in May, with below‑normal rainfall in eastern areas and above‑normal rainfall in central and western regions.
Memorial Day outlook: Warm and tropical, with a mix of sunshine and localized showers, depending on the island and location.
What This Means for Travelers and Holiday Plans
The almanac’s outlook points to a simple national pattern:
- Best outdoor conditions: Northeast, Midwest, Southwest
- Storm risk zones: Southeast, Texas, Oklahoma and the Appalachian regions
- Coolest regions: The Pacific Northwest and higher elevations
Above all, travelers should expect warm weather nearly everywhere, while keeping an eye on pop-up storms.
Key Takeaway
From Maine to California, the almanac suggests Memorial Day 2026 will usher in an early taste of summer across most states.
Expect heat in the South and West, warmth in the East, and thunderstorms as the biggest wildcard—a fitting reminder that long‑range forecasts set expectations, not guarantees.
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